You raised the capital. The cash is in the bank. Your board deck says you have 18 months of runway.
But six months later, hiring has changed. Revenue has moved. Product timelines have shifted.
That doesn't mean the company is in trouble.
It means the model needs to keep up with the business.
Runway is the wrong question
"How many months of cash do we have?" is a fair question, but it assumes the business keeps behaving the way the original forecast said it would. It rarely does.
There's a better question to ask:
The Better Question
"When does the business lose its margin for error?"
That date may arrive well before the bank account reaches zero.
You need time to raise, time to cut, or time to change course. The real deadline is the last point at which you can still make those moves on your terms — not the day the cash runs out.
A 15-minute test
Open your current forecast and run three changes through it:
Revenue arrives 90 days later than planned.
Hiring happens 20% faster than expected.
Your next financing takes six months to close.
None of these are worst-case scenarios. Each one happens to growth-stage companies all the time — and they often happen together.
If 18 months becomes 10, you don't have a crisis. You have information you can act on.
Run the test, then send me your number
Email me what you got and I'll tell you what I'd stress-test next — a second read on the assumptions, not a pitch.
And if it's been a while since your forecast was last updated, the business has probably changed since then. The number usually has too.
A Note from CBarrow
Not everything needs a retainer.
Useful work. Scoped, delivered, and done in a few weeks.
Built from your actuals, with the assumptions exposed so you can move them yourself.
A second set of eyes on the forecast you already have, before it goes to a board or a lender.
The financial cleanup that happens before diligence starts, not during it.
Fixed scope. Fixed fee. No ongoing commitment.
If one of these has been sitting on your list, reach out and I'll tell you what it would take.
However the number comes out, the value isn't in the number. It's in seeing it early enough to do something about it.
About the Author
Crystal Barrow McKinney, CPA
Crystal is a CPA with an Executive MBA from the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania and a BBA from the Ross School of Business, University of Michigan. She is the founder of CBarrow CPA & Advisory, a Houston-based firm providing CPA consulting, fractional CFO/COO services, financial modeling, and operational support for growing businesses and nonprofits.
To schedule a consultation, visit cbarrowcpaadvisory.com or call (832) 844-2133.